Course Details

1. Employ the process of integrated, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis called the risk-based estimate (RBE).
2. Separate and define the two major components of risk-based estimates: base estimates and risk events.
3. Define base cost and schedule uncertainty by employing the probability box approach to consider: base variability and market conditions.
4. Distinguish between the different distributions and explain how they are best applied to risk-based estimates.
5. Assess cost and schedule risks by considering: significant risks and interrelationship of risk dependencies and correlations that form a project’s “risk mesh”.
6. Assess the statistical impact of risks and base uncertainties on a project in terms of schedule and cost using mathematical models, specifically the Monte Carlo method, by: employing the self-modeling risk-based estimate spreadsheet, understanding the true effect of a project’s risk mesh, which is composed of risk dependencies, risk correlations, schedule sequence of events.
7. Interpret the true meaning of the results of risk analysis in terms of: the range and shape of estimated cost and schedule histograms and cumulative distribution functions, the candidates for risk response planning.
8. Develop risk management strategies to minimize threat and maximize opportunities.

Chapter 1: Why and what is risk management?

Chapter 2: Project cost and schedule estimates

Chapter 3: The risk-based estimate

Chapter 4: Risk elicitation

Chapter 5: Risk management

Chapter 6: Risk-based estimate self-modelling spreadsheet

Chapter 7: Risk-based estimate workshop

• Ovidiu Cretu, Robert Stewart, Terry Berends. (2011) Risk Management for design and construction. Wiley.

• John Hull (2010) Risk Management and Financial Institutions. 2nd edition. Pearson
• Michel Crouhy, Dan Dalai, Robert Mark (2006). The essentials of risk management. McGraw Hill

Lectures, discussions, presentation of case studies, movies, assignments.